Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 27.100292 28.882205 30.794807 33.013411 35.533082 38.326482 41.687139
2025-11-23 24.718035 27.177991 29.975592 33.440558 37.687914 42.826205 49.683694
2025-11-30 23.115747 25.892048 29.162338 33.384996 38.832437 45.844580 55.977815
2025-12-07 21.758295 24.706012 28.270394 33.022498 39.407838 48.064262 61.487901
2025-12-14 20.197639 23.125547 26.723644 31.618433 38.371150 47.848685 63.292220
2025-12-21 19.490521 22.541437 26.365268 31.699049 39.308093 50.484567 69.979730
2025-12-28 18.991033 22.174570 26.240689 32.053116 40.628789 53.836309 78.668880
2026-01-04 18.160891 21.327767 25.419280 31.357148 40.305833 54.518993 82.647279
2026-01-11 17.880783 21.179189 25.514378 31.952062 41.978640 58.708025 94.805169
2026-01-18 17.520103 20.899320 25.404704 32.226715 43.159960 62.229407 106.941300
2026-01-25 16.918108 20.264878 24.764692 31.657746 42.897885 63.051883 112.959325
2026-02-01 16.378632 19.692859 24.183377 31.136307 42.659437 63.873700 119.345833
2026-02-08 15.656583 18.914732 23.372664 30.370646 42.215674 64.803029 128.545109
2026-02-15 15.318303 18.659493 23.309631 30.788950 43.941266 70.736135 159.193294
2026-02-22 14.887882 18.245872 22.978910 30.732597 44.776748 74.965228 189.939246
2026-03-01 14.428148 17.766841 22.519787 30.420899 45.080846 78.054517 221.730223
2026-03-08 13.771710 16.980283 21.560310 29.204392 43.481881 76.008231 223.612967
2026-03-15 13.486513 16.714611 21.372823 29.274416 44.441687 80.910198 280.531628
2026-03-22 13.279350 16.551044 21.328968 29.581581 45.924469 87.833632 387.619469
2026-03-29 12.873152 16.080870 20.787818 28.977449 45.404655 88.699711 442.671075
2026-04-05 12.747547 16.017401 20.875894 29.493950 47.386454 98.299675 766.915233
2026-04-12 12.567722 15.865305 20.814392 29.732054 48.785702 106.786500 1568.265816
2026-04-19 12.244029 15.486744 20.373933 29.238555 48.413165 108.559238 2495.952251